Bad Policies and Bad Decisions

I have not posted in some time, as I have just been completely disgusted with the whole 2012 election.  Now that the election is over, I would like to weigh in on why Romney lost the election.

Several of the talking heads have eluded to the fact that the liberal media is to blame for Obama's re-election.  I might be a bit weird here, but, this sounds an awful lot like blaming Bush.  It's clearly finger pointing.  In these cases, I like to do a root cause analysis.  So, here goes.

First, we need to look at the voting margins in the "swing states" for the 2004 election:

• New Mexico: ~6k votes
• Nevada: ~20k votes
• Iowa: ~10k votes
• Colorado: ~100k votes
• Ohio: ~100k votes
• Virginia: ~300k votes
• Florida: ~400k votes
• North Carolina: ~500k votes

This gives a total margin of around 1.5m votes.  Since Bush won that year by more than 3 million votes, this is the number that indicates the real margin; the remainder of the 3 million votes can be discounted because they are in states that are already politically polarized.  This might not sound good, but, the facts are the facts.  This is not to encourage people not to vote, I am simply doing the analysis.  The key point here is that Bush was able to get about 1.5 million votes from these states (listed above) in 2004 to win.  And, that he really needed every one of these votes to win, because Kerry only needed 19 more electoral votes to win.  This means that had Kerry managed to get either Ohio or Florida, he would have won the election.  The margin in Ohio was only 200k votes.  Kerry could have also won if he managed to get Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico.  And, that was a margin of only 126k votes.  Are you starting to get the picture here?  To be clear, less than 200k votes decided this election.

Next, we need to look at the voting margins in the "swing states" for the 2008 election:

• New Mexico: ~125k votes
• Nevada: ~120k votes
  
• Iowa: ~150k votes
• Colorado: ~200k votes
• Ohio: ~200k votes
• Virginia: ~300k votes
• Florida: ~300k votes
• North Carolina: ~20k votes

Unlike 2004, I want to look at some more variances in the data first.  One key thing to note is that the Republican numbers were almost identical; except for Ohio.  In Ohio, there were 200k less votes than in 2004.  Coincidentally, there were 200k more Democrat votes than in 2004.  So, 200k people appear to have changed their mind.  Obama's margin in these states was around 1.4 million votes.  This means that nearly 2.7 million more people voted in the 2008 election in these states, than in the 2004 election.  And, they all voted for Obama.  Let me be clear here: the Republican vote was essentially the same.  The Democrat vote is what changed.  And, this is what determined the election results.

Finally, we need to look at the voting margins in the "swing states" for the 2012 election:

• New Mexico: ~50k votes
• Nevada: ~50k votes
  
• Iowa: ~100k votes
• Colorado: ~100k votes
• Ohio: ~100k votes
• Virginia: ~100k votes
• Florida: ~100k votes
• North Carolina: ~(100k) votes

Clearly, in 2012 the margin was smaller, in terms of the number of votes that decided the election.  Or was it?  Remember, in 2004 less than 200k votes in a few key states decided the election.  In 2008, the Democrat organization must have figured this out, and, they focused all their efforts on those key states.  Obama essentially won by around 500k votes in these same few states.  The key point here, is that Obama only need to beat Bush's number from 2004 to win (a bit ironic, given the Bush bashing done by the Obama campaign).

Given the horrible job Obama has done in the last four years, any rational person has to be asking themselves how he could win.  And, it is easy to blame the liberal media (as the right-wing talking heads are doing).  It is also easy to try to make those who voted for Obama appear as stupid (also, as the right-wing talking heads are doing).  Please forgive my candor, but, this sounds like a bunch of white males whining over the fact that they cannot get their way any more.  One thing is for sure, you are not going to bully the people who voted for Obama into voting Republican, by calling them stupid.  Wise up.

What we need to be asking ourselves is who were the deciding votes, and, why did they vote the way they voted?  Well, based on the numbers, I think the answer is clear: Hispanics.  And, thus, to the point of this post.  The Republican policy on immigration is flawed (as I have said repeatedly on this blog).  And, unless this is addressed, the Republicans can kiss any chance of winning the presidency goodby forever.  In addition, given the really poor job Obama has done, one key decision I believe sealed the fate of the Romney campaign.  Instead of choosing Marco Rubio, Romney chose Paul Ryan (yet another rich white male republican).  The choice of Paul Ryan sent a clear message to Hispanics: we don't need you.  And, they did what anyone would do in that situation, they voted for the other guy.

It's time to put Marco Rubio in charge of the Republican Party.  If we are lucky, we can have a Hispanic Republican Candidate for 2016.  I suspect this is the only way a Republican president will ever be elected again.

Full Disclosure:  I grew up in Florida, and, most of my family still lives in Florida.  I am not related to Marco Rubio (as far as I know).  I admit I might be a bit biased on Marco Rubio, however, I think my logic is sound.